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Zarkovo vs Sindjelic Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Zarkovo
Zarkovo
FT
2 – 1
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
11/5/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 15Stadion Žarkovo (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zarkovo52%
×Draw27%
Sindjelic Beograd22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zarkovo
1.45
Sindjelic Beograd
0.83

Zarkovo creates 75% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

creates per match

Zarkovo
1.10
Sindjelic Beograd
0.74

allows per match

Zarkovo
0.93
Sindjelic Beograd
1.79

finishing

Zarkovo+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zarkovo ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zarkovo or draw
78%
Zarkovo or Sindjelic Beograd
73%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
48%

Winning margin

Zarkovo wins by 2+
26%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zarkovo 1+ goals
77%
Zarkovo 2+ goals
42%
Zarkovo 3+ goals
18%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
56%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
20%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zarkovo (draw refunded)
71%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zarkovo at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 69 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zarkovo attack 1.10 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.74 + Zarkovo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zarkovo scores more
52%
level
27%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
22%

Zarkovo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zarkovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zarkovo vs Sindjelic Beograd

Zarkovo beat Sindjelic Beograd 2-1 in Prva Liga on November 5, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Žarkovo (Beograd).