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Zarkovo vs Macva — Prva Liga 2018

Zarkovo
Zarkovo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Macva
Macva
9/22/2021Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 8Stadion Žarkovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Zarkovo43%
×Draw31%
Macva27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zarkovo
1.14
Macva
0.84

Zarkovo creates 36% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 91 away

creates per match

Zarkovo
1.10
Macva
0.75

allows per match

Zarkovo
0.93
Macva
1.18

finishing

Zarkovo+0.00on par
Macva+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zarkovo ↓

Macva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Zarkovo or draw
73%
Zarkovo or Macva
69%
Draw or Macva
57%

Winning margin

Zarkovo wins by 2+
18%
Macva wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zarkovo 1+ goals
68%
Zarkovo 2+ goals
32%
Zarkovo 3+ goals
11%
Macva 1+ goals
57%
Macva 2+ goals
21%
Macva 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zarkovo (draw refunded)
61%
Macva (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zarkovo at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 69 matches

Macva away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.18 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zarkovo attack 1.10 + Macva defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Macva attack 0.75 + Zarkovo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zarkovo scores more
43%
level
31%
Macva scores more
27%

Zarkovo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zarkovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zarkovo 1 – 3 Macva

Macva beat Zarkovo 3-1 in Prva Liga on September 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Žarkovo in Beograd.