Zarkovo 1–0 FK Trayal: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Zarkovo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FK Trayal

N. Nović 46'

11/22/2020

Prva Liga · Round 16Stadion Žarkovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Zarkovo46%

×Draw29%

FK Trayal25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZarkovoExpected goals in this matchFK Trayal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.85

Zarkovo

1.25

FK Trayal

0.85

Zarkovo creates 47% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 108 away

1.10

creates per match

0.77

0.93

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Zarkovo

1.10

FK Trayal

0.77

allows per match

Zarkovo

0.93

FK Trayal

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zarkovo+0.00on par

FK Trayal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zarkovo ↓

FK Trayal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Zarkovo or draw

75%

Zarkovo or FK Trayal

71%

Draw or FK Trayal

54%

Winning margin

Zarkovo wins by 2+

21%

FK Trayal wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zarkovo 1+ goals

71%

Zarkovo 2+ goals

36%

Zarkovo 3+ goals

13%

FK Trayal 1+ goals

57%

FK Trayal 2+ goals

21%

FK Trayal 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Zarkovo (draw refunded)

64%

FK Trayal (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zarkovo at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 69 matches

FK Trayal away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.39 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zarkovo attack 1.10 + FK Trayal defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

FK Trayal attack 0.77 + Zarkovo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zarkovo scores more

46%

level

29%

FK Trayal scores more

25%

Zarkovo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zarkovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

N. Nović

57'

U. Stepanović← A. Petrović

64'

F. Đurović← I. Matejević

76'

I. Jovanović← O. Joof

77'

N. Kiso← M. Stojanović

90+4'

P. Stanišić← S. Manić

Zarkovo

FK

Manager: M. Kuljic

77'▲N. Kiso←▼M. Stojanović

90+4'▲P. Stanišić←▼S. Manić

Zarkovo substitutes

KisoStanišić

Manager: G. Lazarević

57'▲U. Stepanović←▼A. Petrović

64'▲F. Đurović←▼I. Matejević

76'▲I. Jovanović←▼O. Joof

FK Trayal substitutes

StepanovićĐurovićJovanović

Match Recap: Zarkovo vs FK Trayal

Zarkovo beat FK Trayal 1-0 in Prva Liga on November 22, 2020.

Goals: N. Nović (46').

The match was played at Stadion Žarkovo in Beograd.

Zarkovo vs FK Trayal — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Zarkovo vs FK Trayal