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Zaria Balti vs Sireți — Cupa 2020

Zaria Balti
Zaria Balti
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sireți
Sireți
10/22/2024CupaCupa · 2nd RoundStadionul Locomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zaria Balti49%
×Draw20%
Sireți31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaria Balti
2.29
Sireți
1.79

Zaria Balti creates 28% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Zaria Balti
1.75
Sireți
1.83

allows per match

Zaria Balti
1.75
Sireți
2.83

finishing

Zaria Balti+0.00on par
Sireți+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaria Balti ↓

Sireți →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Zaria Balti or draw
69%
Zaria Balti or Sireți
80%
Draw or Sireți
51%

Winning margin

Zaria Balti wins by 2+
29%
Sireți wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zaria Balti 1+ goals
90%
Zaria Balti 2+ goals
66%
Zaria Balti 3+ goals
40%
Sireți 1+ goals
83%
Sireți 2+ goals
53%
Sireți 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Zaria Balti (draw refunded)
62%
Sireți (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaria Balti at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Sireți away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaria Balti attack 1.75 + Sireți defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.29

Sireți attack 1.83 + Zaria Balti defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zaria Balti scores more
49%
level
20%
Sireți scores more
31%

Zaria Balti at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zaria Balti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Zaria Balti 1–2 Sireți

Sireți beat Zaria Balti 2-1 in Cupa on October 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Locomotiv in Bălţi.