Zaria Balti 1–3 Sîngerei: Result & Stats | Cupa

Zaria Balti

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Sîngerei

9/14/2021

Cupa · 2nd RoundTeren de Fotbal Popovca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zaria Balti45%

×Draw22%

Sîngerei33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaria BaltiExpected goals in this matchSîngerei

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.68

Zaria Balti

1.98

Sîngerei

1.68

Zaria Balti creates 18% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.75

creates per match

1.60

1.75

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Zaria Balti

1.75

Sîngerei

1.60

allows per match

Zaria Balti

1.75

Sîngerei

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaria Balti+0.00on par

Sîngerei+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaria Balti ↓

Sîngerei →

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Zaria Balti or draw

67%

Zaria Balti or Sîngerei

78%

Draw or Sîngerei

55%

Winning margin

Zaria Balti wins by 2+

25%

Sîngerei wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Zaria Balti 1+ goals

86%

Zaria Balti 2+ goals

59%

Zaria Balti 3+ goals

31%

Sîngerei 1+ goals

81%

Sîngerei 2+ goals

50%

Sîngerei 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Zaria Balti (draw refunded)

58%

Sîngerei (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zaria Balti at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Sîngerei away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zaria Balti attack 1.75 + Sîngerei defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.98

Sîngerei attack 1.60 + Zaria Balti defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zaria Balti scores more

45%

level

22%

Sîngerei scores more

33%

Zaria Balti at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zaria Balti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff