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Zarautz vs Lagun Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Zarautz
Zarautz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lagun Onak
Lagun Onak
J. Manterola 61'
U. Uria 17'
3/7/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Estadio Asti Kirol Instalakuntzak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zarautz31%
×Draw31%
Lagun Onak38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zarautz
0.93
Lagun Onak
1.07

Lagun Onak creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 114 away

creates per match

Zarautz
0.53
Lagun Onak
0.97

allows per match

Zarautz
1.18
Lagun Onak
1.32

finishing

Zarautz+0.00on par
Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zarautz ↓

Lagun Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Zarautz or draw
62%
Zarautz or Lagun Onak
69%
Draw or Lagun Onak
69%

Winning margin

Zarautz wins by 2+
11%
Lagun Onak wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zarautz 1+ goals
61%
Zarautz 2+ goals
24%
Zarautz 3+ goals
7%
Lagun Onak 1+ goals
66%
Lagun Onak 2+ goals
29%
Lagun Onak 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zarautz (draw refunded)
45%
Lagun Onak (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zarautz at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Lagun Onak away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zarautz attack 0.53 + Lagun Onak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.93

Lagun Onak attack 0.97 + Zarautz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zarautz scores more
31%
level
31%
Lagun Onak scores more
38%

Lagun Onak at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lagun Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
U. Uria
61'
J. Manterola

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Zarautz 1–1 Lagun Onak

Zarautz and Lagun Onak drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 7, 2026.

Goals: U. Uria (17'), J. Manterola (61').

The match was played at Estadio Asti Kirol Instalakuntzak in Zarautz.