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Zaragoza vs Reus — Segunda División 2018

Zaragoza
Zaragoza
FT
1 – 0
Reus
Reus
4/20/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 35La Romareda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Zaragoza44%
×Draw32%
Reus24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaragoza
1.09
Reus
0.72

Zaragoza creates 51% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 21 away

creates per match

Zaragoza
1.08
Reus
0.38

allows per match

Zaragoza
1.05
Reus
1.10

finishing

Zaragoza+0.00on par
Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaragoza ↓

Reus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Zaragoza or draw
76%
Zaragoza or Reus
68%
Draw or Reus
56%

Winning margin

Zaragoza wins by 2+
18%
Reus wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zaragoza 1+ goals
66%
Zaragoza 2+ goals
30%
Zaragoza 3+ goals
10%
Reus 1+ goals
51%
Reus 2+ goals
16%
Reus 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Zaragoza (draw refunded)
65%
Reus (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaragoza at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 169 matches

Reus away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaragoza attack 1.08 + Reus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.09

Reus attack 0.38 + Zaragoza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zaragoza scores more
44%
level
32%
Reus scores more
24%

Zaragoza at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zaragoza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Zaragoza 1–0 Reus

Zaragoza beat Reus 1-0 in Segunda División on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at La Romareda in Saragossa.