Zaragoza 2–2 Levante: Result & Stats

Zaragoza

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Levante

12/20/2023

Segunda División · Round 21Estadio de la Romareda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Zaragoza33%

×Draw30%

Levante36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZaragozaExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.06

Zaragoza

1.00

Levante

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 169 home / 65 away

1.08

creates per match

1.06

1.05

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Zaragoza

1.08

Levante

1.06

allows per match

Zaragoza

1.05

Levante

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaragoza+0.00on par

Levante+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaragoza ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Zaragoza or draw

64%

Zaragoza or Levante

70%

Draw or Levante

67%

Winning margin

Zaragoza wins by 2+

12%

Levante wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Zaragoza 1+ goals

63%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

26%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

8%

Levante 1+ goals

65%

Levante 2+ goals

29%

Levante 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

48%

Levante (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaragoza at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 169 matches

Levante away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaragoza attack 1.08 + Levante defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.00

Levante attack 1.06 + Zaragoza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Zaragoza scores more

33%

level

30%

Levante scores more

36%

Levante at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff