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Zaragoza vs Leganes — Segunda División 2018

Zaragoza
Zaragoza
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Leganes
Leganes
3/12/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 31Estadio de la Romareda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Zaragoza37%
×Draw30%
Leganes33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaragoza
1.08
Leganes
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 169 home / 106 away

creates per match

Zaragoza
1.08
Leganes
0.97

allows per match

Zaragoza
1.05
Leganes
1.09

finishing

Zaragoza+0.00on par
Leganes+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaragoza ↓

Leganes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zaragoza or draw
67%
Zaragoza or Leganes
70%
Draw or Leganes
63%

Winning margin

Zaragoza wins by 2+
15%
Leganes wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zaragoza 1+ goals
66%
Zaragoza 2+ goals
29%
Zaragoza 3+ goals
10%
Leganes 1+ goals
64%
Leganes 2+ goals
27%
Leganes 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zaragoza (draw refunded)
53%
Leganes (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaragoza at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 169 matches

Leganes away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaragoza attack 1.08 + Leganes defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Leganes attack 0.97 + Zaragoza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zaragoza scores more
37%
level
30%
Leganes scores more
33%

Zaragoza at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zaragoza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Zaragoza 3–0 Leganes

Zaragoza beat Leganes 3-0 in Segunda División on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio de la Romareda in Zaragoza.