Zaragoza 0–3 Alcorcon: Result & Stats

Zaragoza

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Alcorcon

5/8/2022

Segunda División · Round 39Estadio de la Romareda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Zaragoza41%

×Draw29%

Alcorcon30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZaragozaExpected goals in this matchAlcorcon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.98

Zaragoza

1.21

Alcorcon

0.98

Zaragoza creates 23% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 105 away

1.08

creates per match

0.90

1.05

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Zaragoza

1.08

Alcorcon

0.90

allows per match

Zaragoza

1.05

Alcorcon

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaragoza+0.00on par

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaragoza ↓

Alcorcon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Zaragoza or draw

70%

Zaragoza or Alcorcon

71%

Draw or Alcorcon

59%

Winning margin

Zaragoza wins by 2+

18%

Alcorcon wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Zaragoza 1+ goals

70%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

34%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

12%

Alcorcon 1+ goals

62%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

26%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

58%

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaragoza at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 169 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.33 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaragoza attack 1.08 + Alcorcon defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Alcorcon attack 0.90 + Zaragoza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zaragoza scores more

41%

level

29%

Alcorcon scores more

30%

Zaragoza at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zaragoza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff