Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zaqatala vs Qaradağ Lökbatan — Birinci Dasta 2019

Zaqatala
Zaqatala
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan
9/26/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 3Şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Zaqatala46%
×Draw25%
Qaradağ Lökbatan28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaqatala
1.54
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.14

Zaqatala creates 35% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 76 away

creates per match

Zaqatala
1.71
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.12

allows per match

Zaqatala
1.16
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.36

finishing

Zaqatala+0.00on par
Qaradağ Lökbatan+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaqatala ↓

Qaradağ Lökbatan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zaqatala or draw
72%
Zaqatala or Qaradağ Lökbatan
75%
Draw or Qaradağ Lökbatan
54%

Winning margin

Zaqatala wins by 2+
23%
Qaradağ Lökbatan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zaqatala 1+ goals
79%
Zaqatala 2+ goals
45%
Zaqatala 3+ goals
20%
Qaradağ Lökbatan 1+ goals
68%
Qaradağ Lökbatan 2+ goals
32%
Qaradağ Lökbatan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zaqatala (draw refunded)
62%
Qaradağ Lökbatan (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaqatala at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.16 · 87 matches

Qaradağ Lökbatan away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaqatala attack 1.71 + Qaradağ Lökbatan defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

Qaradağ Lökbatan attack 1.12 + Zaqatala defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zaqatala scores more
46%
level
25%
Qaradağ Lökbatan scores more
28%

Zaqatala at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zaqatala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaqatala vs Qaradağ Lökbatan

Zaqatala beat Qaradağ Lökbatan 4-0 in Birinci Dasta on September 26, 2024.

The match was played at Şəhər stadionu in Zaqatala.