Zaqatala 2–1 İrəvan: Result & Stats | Birinci Dasta

Zaqatala

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

İrəvan

5/15/2024

Birinci Dasta · Round 26Şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Zaqatala52%

×Draw24%

İrəvan24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZaqatalaExpected goals in this matchİrəvan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.04

Zaqatala

1.67

İrəvan

1.04

Zaqatala creates 61% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 14 away

1.71

creates per match

0.93

1.16

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Zaqatala

1.71

İrəvan

0.93

allows per match

Zaqatala

1.16

İrəvan

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaqatala+0.00on par

İrəvan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaqatala ↓

İrəvan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Zaqatala or draw

76%

Zaqatala or İrəvan

76%

Draw or İrəvan

48%

Winning margin

Zaqatala wins by 2+

28%

İrəvan wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Zaqatala 1+ goals

81%

Zaqatala 2+ goals

50%

Zaqatala 3+ goals

23%

İrəvan 1+ goals

65%

İrəvan 2+ goals

28%

İrəvan 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zaqatala (draw refunded)

69%

İrəvan (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaqatala at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.16 · 87 matches

İrəvan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaqatala attack 1.71 + İrəvan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

İrəvan attack 0.93 + Zaqatala defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zaqatala scores more

52%

level

24%

İrəvan scores more

24%

Zaqatala at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zaqatala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff