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Zanaco vs Prison Leopards — Super League 2019

Zanaco
Zanaco
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Prison Leopards
Prison Leopards
2/15/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Sunset Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Zanaco50%
×Draw28%
Prison Leopards23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zanaco
1.38
Prison Leopards
0.84

Zanaco creates 64% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 95 away

creates per match

Zanaco
1.35
Prison Leopards
0.78

allows per match

Zanaco
0.91
Prison Leopards
1.40

finishing

Zanaco+0.00on par
Prison Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zanaco ↓

Prison Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zanaco or draw
77%
Zanaco or Prison Leopards
72%
Draw or Prison Leopards
50%

Winning margin

Zanaco wins by 2+
24%
Prison Leopards wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zanaco 1+ goals
75%
Zanaco 2+ goals
40%
Zanaco 3+ goals
16%
Prison Leopards 1+ goals
57%
Prison Leopards 2+ goals
21%
Prison Leopards 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zanaco (draw refunded)
68%
Prison Leopards (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zanaco at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.91 · 112 matches

Prison Leopards away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zanaco attack 1.35 + Prison Leopards defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Prison Leopards attack 0.78 + Zanaco defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zanaco scores more
50%
level
28%
Prison Leopards scores more
23%

Zanaco at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zanaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zanaco vs Prison Leopards

Zanaco beat Prison Leopards 3-0 in Super League on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Sunset Stadium in Lusaka.