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Zanaco vs NAPSA Stars — Super League 2019

Zanaco
Zanaco
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
NAPSA Stars
NAPSA Stars
11/9/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Sunset Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Zanaco46%
×Draw30%
NAPSA Stars25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zanaco
1.22
NAPSA Stars
0.81

Zanaco creates 51% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 93 away

creates per match

Zanaco
1.35
NAPSA Stars
0.71

allows per match

Zanaco
0.91
NAPSA Stars
1.08

finishing

Zanaco+0.00on par
NAPSA Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zanaco ↓

NAPSA Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zanaco or draw
75%
Zanaco or NAPSA Stars
70%
Draw or NAPSA Stars
54%

Winning margin

Zanaco wins by 2+
20%
NAPSA Stars wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zanaco 1+ goals
70%
Zanaco 2+ goals
34%
Zanaco 3+ goals
12%
NAPSA Stars 1+ goals
56%
NAPSA Stars 2+ goals
19%
NAPSA Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zanaco (draw refunded)
65%
NAPSA Stars (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zanaco at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.91 · 112 matches

NAPSA Stars away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zanaco attack 1.35 + NAPSA Stars defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.22

NAPSA Stars attack 0.71 + Zanaco defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zanaco scores more
46%
level
30%
NAPSA Stars scores more
25%

Zanaco at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zanaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Zanaco 0–1 NAPSA Stars

NAPSA Stars beat Zanaco 1-0 in Super League on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sunset Stadium in Lusaka.