Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zanaco vs Man Utd Zambia Academy — Super League 2019

Zanaco
Zanaco
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Man Utd Zambia Academy
Man Utd Zambia Academy
2/9/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Nkoloma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Zanaco42%
×Draw29%
Man Utd Zambia Academy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zanaco
1.22
Man Utd Zambia Academy
0.97

Zanaco creates 26% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 77 away

creates per match

Zanaco
1.35
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.03

allows per match

Zanaco
0.91
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.08

finishing

Zanaco+0.00on par
Man Utd Zambia Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zanaco ↓

Man Utd Zambia Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zanaco or draw
71%
Zanaco or Man Utd Zambia Academy
71%
Draw or Man Utd Zambia Academy
58%

Winning margin

Zanaco wins by 2+
18%
Man Utd Zambia Academy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zanaco 1+ goals
70%
Zanaco 2+ goals
34%
Zanaco 3+ goals
12%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 1+ goals
62%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 2+ goals
25%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zanaco (draw refunded)
59%
Man Utd Zambia Academy (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zanaco at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.91 · 112 matches

Man Utd Zambia Academy away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zanaco attack 1.35 + Man Utd Zambia Academy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.22

Man Utd Zambia Academy attack 1.03 + Zanaco defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zanaco scores more
42%
level
29%
Man Utd Zambia Academy scores more
29%

Zanaco at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zanaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zanaco vs Man Utd Zambia Academy

Man Utd Zambia Academy beat Zanaco 2-0 in Super League on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Nkoloma Stadium in Lusaka.