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Zanaco vs Green Buffaloes — Super League 2019

Zanaco
Zanaco
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Green Buffaloes
Green Buffaloes
1/26/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21REIZ Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Zanaco45%
×Draw29%
Green Buffaloes26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zanaco
1.24
Green Buffaloes
0.86

Zanaco creates 44% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 110 away

creates per match

Zanaco
1.35
Green Buffaloes
0.82

allows per match

Zanaco
0.91
Green Buffaloes
1.13

finishing

Zanaco+0.00on par
Green Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zanaco ↓

Green Buffaloes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zanaco or draw
74%
Zanaco or Green Buffaloes
71%
Draw or Green Buffaloes
55%

Winning margin

Zanaco wins by 2+
20%
Green Buffaloes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zanaco 1+ goals
71%
Zanaco 2+ goals
35%
Zanaco 3+ goals
13%
Green Buffaloes 1+ goals
58%
Green Buffaloes 2+ goals
21%
Green Buffaloes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zanaco (draw refunded)
64%
Green Buffaloes (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zanaco at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.91 · 112 matches

Green Buffaloes away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.13 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zanaco attack 1.35 + Green Buffaloes defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.24

Green Buffaloes attack 0.82 + Zanaco defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zanaco scores more
45%
level
29%
Green Buffaloes scores more
26%

Zanaco at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zanaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Zanaco 4–1 Green Buffaloes

Zanaco beat Green Buffaloes 4-1 in Super League on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at REIZ Arena in Lusaka.