Zana Abasha 2–0 Margveti 2006: Result & Stats

Zana Abasha

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Margveti 2006

7/7/2022

David Kipiani Cup · 3rd RoundStadioni Velodi Miminoshvili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zana Abasha20%

×Draw20%

Margveti 200660%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zana AbashaExpected goals in this matchMargveti 2006

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

2.17

Zana Abasha

1.17

Margveti 2006

2.17

Margveti 2006 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

2.33

2.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Zana Abasha

1.00

Margveti 2006

2.33

allows per match

Zana Abasha

2.00

Margveti 2006

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zana Abasha+0.00on par

Margveti 2006+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zana Abasha ↓

Margveti 2006 →

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Zana Abasha or draw

40%

Zana Abasha or Margveti 2006

80%

Draw or Margveti 2006

80%

Winning margin

Zana Abasha wins by 2+

Margveti 2006 wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Zana Abasha 1+ goals

69%

Zana Abasha 2+ goals

33%

Zana Abasha 3+ goals

11%

Margveti 2006 1+ goals

89%

Margveti 2006 2+ goals

64%

Margveti 2006 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Zana Abasha (draw refunded)

25%

Margveti 2006 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zana Abasha at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Margveti 2006 away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zana Abasha attack 1.00 + Margveti 2006 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Margveti 2006 attack 2.33 + Zana Abasha defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Zana Abasha scores more

20%

level

20%

Margveti 2006 scores more

60%

Margveti 2006 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Margveti 2006 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff