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Zana Abasha vs Guria — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Zana Abasha
Zana Abasha
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Guria
Guriaadvanced
9/13/2022David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · Round of 16Stadioni Velodi Miminoshvili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Zana Abasha21%
×Draw23%
Guria56%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zana Abasha
1.00
Guria
1.79

Guria creates 79% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Zana Abasha
1.00
Guria
1.57

allows per match

Zana Abasha
2.00
Guria
1.00

finishing

Zana Abasha+0.00on par
Guria+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zana Abasha ↓

Guria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zana Abasha or draw
44%
Zana Abasha or Guria
77%
Draw or Guria
79%

Winning margin

Zana Abasha wins by 2+
7%
Guria wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Zana Abasha 1+ goals
63%
Zana Abasha 2+ goals
26%
Zana Abasha 3+ goals
8%
Guria 1+ goals
83%
Guria 2+ goals
53%
Guria 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Zana Abasha (draw refunded)
27%
Guria (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zana Abasha at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Guria away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zana Abasha attack 1.00 + Guria defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Guria attack 1.57 + Zana Abasha defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zana Abasha scores more
21%
level
23%
Guria scores more
56%

Guria at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Guria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zana Abasha vs Guria

Guria beat Zana Abasha 4-1 in David Kipiani Cup on September 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stadioni Velodi Miminoshvili in Abasha.