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Zamudio vs Derio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Zamudio
Zamudio
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Derio
Derio
10/25/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Estadio Udal Kiroldegia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zamudio48%
×Draw25%
Derio26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamudio
1.55
Derio
1.07

Zamudio creates 45% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

creates per match

Zamudio
1.88
Derio
1.15

allows per match

Zamudio
1.00
Derio
1.23

finishing

Zamudio+0.00on par
Derio+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamudio ↓

Derio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zamudio or draw
74%
Zamudio or Derio
75%
Draw or Derio
52%

Winning margin

Zamudio wins by 2+
25%
Derio wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zamudio 1+ goals
79%
Zamudio 2+ goals
46%
Zamudio 3+ goals
20%
Derio 1+ goals
66%
Derio 2+ goals
29%
Derio 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zamudio (draw refunded)
65%
Derio (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamudio at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Derio away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamudio attack 1.88 + Derio defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.55

Derio attack 1.15 + Zamudio defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zamudio scores more
48%
level
25%
Derio scores more
26%

Zamudio at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zamudio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zamudio 2 – 3 Derio

Derio beat Zamudio 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Udal Kiroldegia in Zamudio.