Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zamudio vs Aurrerá Vitoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Zamudio
Zamudio
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aurrerá Vitoria
Aurrerá Vitoria
2/15/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Estadio Udal Kiroldegia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zamudio59%
×Draw23%
Aurrerá Vitoria18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamudio
1.83
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.91

Zamudio creates 101% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 32 away

creates per match

Zamudio
1.88
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.81

allows per match

Zamudio
1.00
Aurrerá Vitoria
1.78

finishing

Zamudio+0.00on par
Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamudio ↓

Aurrerá Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zamudio or draw
82%
Zamudio or Aurrerá Vitoria
77%
Draw or Aurrerá Vitoria
41%

Winning margin

Zamudio wins by 2+
34%
Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zamudio 1+ goals
84%
Zamudio 2+ goals
54%
Zamudio 3+ goals
28%
Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals
60%
Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals
23%
Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zamudio (draw refunded)
76%
Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamudio at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Aurrerá Vitoria away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamudio attack 1.88 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.83

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 0.81 + Zamudio defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zamudio scores more
59%
level
23%
Aurrerá Vitoria scores more
18%

Zamudio at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zamudio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zamudio vs Aurrerá Vitoria

Zamudio beat Aurrerá Vitoria 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Udal Kiroldegia in Zamudio.