Zams 2–1 St. Johann in Tirol: Result & Stats

Zams

FT

2 – 1

St. Johann in Tirol

9/15/2019

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 7Eurogast-Grissemann-Arena Zams

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Zams25%

×Draw22%

St. Johann in Tirol53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZamsExpected goals in this matchSt. Johann in Tirol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

2.00

Zams

1.32

St. Johann in Tirol

2.00

St. Johann in Tirol creates 52% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 85 away

1.03

creates per match

1.89

2.10

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Zams

1.03

St. Johann in Tirol

1.89

allows per match

Zams

2.10

St. Johann in Tirol

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zams+0.00on par

St. Johann in Tirol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zams ↓

St. Johann in Tirol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Zams or draw

47%

Zams or St. Johann in Tirol

78%

Draw or St. Johann in Tirol

75%

Winning margin

Zams wins by 2+

11%

St. Johann in Tirol wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Zams 1+ goals

73%

Zams 2+ goals

38%

Zams 3+ goals

15%

St. Johann in Tirol 1+ goals

86%

St. Johann in Tirol 2+ goals

59%

St. Johann in Tirol 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Zams (draw refunded)

32%

St. Johann in Tirol (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zams at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.10 · 29 matches

St. Johann in Tirol away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.61 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zams attack 1.03 + St. Johann in Tirol defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.32

St. Johann in Tirol attack 1.89 + Zams defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zams scores more

25%

level

22%

St. Johann in Tirol scores more

53%

St. Johann in Tirol at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "St. Johann in Tirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff