St. Johann in Tirol 4–0 Zams: Result & Stats

St. Johann in Tirol

FT

4 – 0

Zams

8/15/2020

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 2Koasastadion St. Johann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

St. Johann in Tirol70%

×Draw16%

Zams14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. Johann in TirolExpected goals in this matchZams

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

1.19

St. Johann in Tirol

2.77

Zams

1.19

St. Johann in Tirol creates 133% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 29 away

2.23

creates per match

0.86

1.51

allows per match

3.31

creates per match

St. Johann in Tirol

2.23

Zams

0.86

allows per match

St. Johann in Tirol

1.51

Zams

3.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Johann in Tirol+0.00on par

Zams+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Johann in Tirol ↓

Zams →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

St. Johann in Tirol or draw

86%

St. Johann in Tirol or Zams

84%

Draw or Zams

30%

Winning margin

St. Johann in Tirol wins by 2+

49%

Zams wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

St. Johann in Tirol 1+ goals

94%

St. Johann in Tirol 2+ goals

76%

St. Johann in Tirol 3+ goals

51%

Zams 1+ goals

70%

Zams 2+ goals

33%

Zams 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

St. Johann in Tirol (draw refunded)

83%

Zams (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Johann in Tirol at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

Zams away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Johann in Tirol attack 2.23 + Zams defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.77

Zams attack 0.86 + St. Johann in Tirol defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

St. Johann in Tirol scores more

70%

level

16%

Zams scores more

14%

St. Johann in Tirol at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "St. Johann in Tirol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff