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Zams vs Kundl — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Zams
Zams
FT
1 – 1
Kundl
Kundl
9/27/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 9Eurogast-Grissemann-Arena Zams

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Zams32%
×Draw23%
Kundl45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zams
1.45
Kundl
1.77

Kundl creates 22% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 70 away

creates per match

Zams
1.03
Kundl
1.44

allows per match

Zams
2.10
Kundl
1.87

finishing

Zams+0.00on par
Kundl+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zams ↓

Kundl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zams or draw
55%
Zams or Kundl
77%
Draw or Kundl
68%

Winning margin

Zams wins by 2+
14%
Kundl wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Zams 1+ goals
77%
Zams 2+ goals
42%
Zams 3+ goals
18%
Kundl 1+ goals
83%
Kundl 2+ goals
53%
Kundl 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Zams (draw refunded)
41%
Kundl (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zams at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.10 · 29 matches

Kundl away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.87 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zams attack 1.03 + Kundl defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kundl attack 1.44 + Zams defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zams scores more
32%
level
23%
Kundl scores more
45%

Kundl at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kundl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zams 1 – 1 Kundl

Zams and Kundl drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Eurogast-Grissemann-Arena Zams in Zams.