Zamora 2–1 UD Santa Marta: Result & Stats

Zamora

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

UD Santa Marta

Álvaro Coque 89'

Dani Hernández 27'

L. Galiano 7'

11/9/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 14Estadio Ruta de la Plata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Zamora69%

×Draw19%

UD Santa Marta12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZamoraExpected goals in this matchUD Santa Marta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.73

Zamora

2.10

UD Santa Marta

0.73

Zamora creates 188% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 115 away

2.71

creates per match

0.97

0.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Zamora

2.71

UD Santa Marta

0.97

allows per match

Zamora

0.50

UD Santa Marta

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamora+0.00on par

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora ↓

UD Santa Marta →

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Zamora or draw

88%

Zamora or UD Santa Marta

81%

Draw or UD Santa Marta

31%

Winning margin

Zamora wins by 2+

44%

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+

Team goals

Zamora 1+ goals

88%

Zamora 2+ goals

62%

Zamora 3+ goals

35%

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals

52%

UD Santa Marta 2+ goals

17%

UD Santa Marta 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Zamora (draw refunded)

85%

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zamora at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

UD Santa Marta away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zamora attack 2.71 + UD Santa Marta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

UD Santa Marta attack 0.97 + Zamora defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Zamora scores more

69%

level

19%

UD Santa Marta scores more

12%

Zamora at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

L. Galiano

27'

Dani Hernández

60'

Borja Rubiato← Sergio García

69'

Guille Perero← Garban

79'

Asensio← Jorge García

79'

Aarón Moreno← Ángel Lerma

80'

Rodri← Valentín Prieto

87'

Yago Trigueros← Mito Martín

89'

Zamora

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: David Movilla

60'▲Borja Rubiato←▼Sergio García

69'▲Guille Perero←▼Garban

80'▲Rodri←▼Valentín Prieto

Zamora substitutes

RubiatoPereroRodri

Manager: Arturo Martín

79'▲Asensio←▼Jorge García

79'▲Aarón Moreno←▼Ángel Lerma

87'▲Yago Trigueros←▼Mito Martín

UD Santa Marta substitutes

AsensioMorenoTrigueros