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Zamora vs Real Valladolid II — League #875 2026

Zamora
Zamora
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Valladolid II
Real Valladolid II
4/14/2024League #875League #875 · Group 1 - 31Estadio Ruta de la Plata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zamora30%
×Draw26%
Real Valladolid II44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamora
1.13
Real Valladolid II
1.42

Real Valladolid II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 22 away

creates per match

Zamora
0.75
Real Valladolid II
1.59

allows per match

Zamora
1.25
Real Valladolid II
1.50

finishing

Zamora+0.00on par
Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora ↓

Real Valladolid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zamora or draw
56%
Zamora or Real Valladolid II
74%
Draw or Real Valladolid II
70%

Winning margin

Zamora wins by 2+
12%
Real Valladolid II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Zamora 1+ goals
68%
Zamora 2+ goals
31%
Zamora 3+ goals
11%
Real Valladolid II 1+ goals
76%
Real Valladolid II 2+ goals
41%
Real Valladolid II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zamora (draw refunded)
41%
Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora attack 0.75 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Real Valladolid II attack 1.59 + Zamora defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zamora scores more
30%
level
26%
Real Valladolid II scores more
44%

Real Valladolid II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zamora vs Real Valladolid II

Zamora and Real Valladolid II drew 1-1 in League #875 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ruta de la Plata in Zamora.