Zamora 2–0 Real Burgos: Result & Stats

Zamora

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Burgos

9/7/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 3Estadio Ruta de la Plata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Zamora72%

×Draw17%

Real Burgos11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZamoraExpected goals in this matchReal Burgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

0.75

Zamora

2.30

Real Burgos

0.75

Zamora creates 207% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 30 away

2.71

creates per match

1.00

0.50

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Zamora

2.71

Real Burgos

1.00

allows per match

Zamora

0.50

Real Burgos

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamora+0.00on par

Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora ↓

Real Burgos →

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Zamora or draw

89%

Zamora or Real Burgos

83%

Draw or Real Burgos

28%

Winning margin

Zamora wins by 2+

48%

Real Burgos wins by 2+

Team goals

Zamora 1+ goals

90%

Zamora 2+ goals

67%

Zamora 3+ goals

40%

Real Burgos 1+ goals

53%

Real Burgos 2+ goals

17%

Real Burgos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Zamora (draw refunded)

87%

Real Burgos (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zamora at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zamora attack 2.71 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.30

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Zamora defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Zamora scores more

72%

level

17%

Real Burgos scores more

11%

Zamora at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff