Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zamora vs Real Avilés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Zamora
Zamora
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Real Avilés
Real Avilés
10/12/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio Ruta de la Plata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zamora42%
×Draw24%
Real Avilés33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamora
1.59
Real Avilés
1.39

Zamora creates 14% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 19 away

creates per match

Zamora
1.18
Real Avilés
1.84

allows per match

Zamora
0.93
Real Avilés
2.00

finishing

Zamora+0.00on par
Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora ↓

Real Avilés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zamora or draw
67%
Zamora or Real Avilés
76%
Draw or Real Avilés
58%

Winning margin

Zamora wins by 2+
21%
Real Avilés wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zamora 1+ goals
80%
Zamora 2+ goals
47%
Zamora 3+ goals
21%
Real Avilés 1+ goals
75%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
40%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zamora (draw refunded)
56%
Real Avilés (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 68 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora attack 1.18 + Real Avilés defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Real Avilés attack 1.84 + Zamora defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zamora scores more
42%
level
24%
Real Avilés scores more
33%

Zamora at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Zamora 2–3 Real Avilés

Real Avilés beat Zamora 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ruta de la Plata in Zamora.