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Zamora vs Osasuna II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Zamora
Zamora
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Osasuna II
Osasuna II
1/19/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Estadio Ruta de la Plata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Zamora44%
×Draw28%
Osasuna II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamora
1.31
Osasuna II
0.99

Zamora creates 32% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 57 away

creates per match

Zamora
1.18
Osasuna II
1.05

allows per match

Zamora
0.93
Osasuna II
1.44

finishing

Zamora+0.00on par
Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora ↓

Osasuna II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zamora or draw
72%
Zamora or Osasuna II
72%
Draw or Osasuna II
56%

Winning margin

Zamora wins by 2+
20%
Osasuna II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zamora 1+ goals
73%
Zamora 2+ goals
38%
Zamora 3+ goals
14%
Osasuna II 1+ goals
63%
Osasuna II 2+ goals
26%
Osasuna II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zamora (draw refunded)
61%
Osasuna II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 68 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora attack 1.18 + Osasuna II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Osasuna II attack 1.05 + Zamora defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zamora scores more
44%
level
28%
Osasuna II scores more
28%

Zamora at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zamora vs Osasuna II

Zamora beat Osasuna II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ruta de la Plata in Zamora.