Zamora 0–2 Internacional de Madrid: Result & Stats

Zamora

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Internacional de Madrid

Arthur 24'

David Barral 6'

3/6/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Estadio Ruta de la Plata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Zamora47%

×Draw29%

Internacional de Madrid24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZamoraExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.84

Zamora

1.30

Internacional de Madrid

0.84

Zamora creates 55% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 33 away

1.18

creates per match

0.76

0.93

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Zamora

1.18

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Zamora

0.93

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamora+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Zamora or draw

76%

Zamora or Internacional de Madrid

71%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

53%

Winning margin

Zamora wins by 2+

22%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zamora 1+ goals

73%

Zamora 2+ goals

37%

Zamora 3+ goals

14%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

57%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

21%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Zamora (draw refunded)

66%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 68 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora attack 1.18 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Zamora defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zamora scores more

47%

level

29%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

24%

Zamora at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

David Barral

24'

Arthur

46'

B. Garay← Carlos Cordero

46'

Julián Luque← Carlos Parra

53'

R. Soria Blazquez

60'

Adri Herrera← J. Dongou

60'

Mario Losada← Jorge Fernández

70'

Marcos Baselga← Javi Navas

72'

Álex Zambrano← Álvaro Martín

72'

Pitu← David Barral

72'

L. Marín← Arthur

78'

79'

S. Brulmans← Rubén Ramos

85'

Álex Masogo← Reguera

Zamora

Internacional

⚽

▼

Arthur

▼

Martín

▼

Reguera

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Yago Iglesias

46'▲B. Garay←▼Carlos Cordero

46'▲Julián Luque←▼Carlos Parra

60'▲Adri Herrera←▼J. Dongou

60'▲Mario Losada←▼Jorge Fernández

70'▲Marcos Baselga←▼Javi Navas

Zamora substitutes

GarayLuqueHerreraLosadaBaselgaNdiayeEspejoHernándezVillanuevaCampos

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

72'▲Álex Zambrano←▼Álvaro Martín

72'▲Pitu←▼David Barral

72'▲L. Marín←▼Arthur

79'▲S. Brulmans←▼Rubén Ramos

85'▲Álex Masogo←▼Reguera

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

ZambranoPituMarínBrulmansMasogoWashingtonGilHerreroKolderiuYelco

Match Recap: Zamora vs Internacional de Madrid

Internacional de Madrid beat Zamora 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 6, 2022.

Goals: David Barral (6'), Arthur (24').

The match was played at Estadio Ruta de la Plata in Zamora.

Zamora vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Zamora vs Internacional de Madrid