Zamora 3–2 Cultural Leonesa: Result & Stats

Zamora

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Cultural Leonesa

Dani Hernández González 41' (pen)

A. Coscia 6', 1'

Carlos Bravo 79'

Julen Castañeda 39'

4/18/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Ruta de la Plata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Zamora41%

×Draw28%

Cultural Leonesa31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZamoraExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.04

Zamora

1.25

Cultural Leonesa

1.04

Zamora creates 20% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 88 away

1.18

creates per match

1.16

0.93

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Zamora

1.18

Cultural Leonesa

1.16

allows per match

Zamora

0.93

Cultural Leonesa

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamora+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zamora or draw

69%

Zamora or Cultural Leonesa

72%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

59%

Winning margin

Zamora wins by 2+

18%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zamora 1+ goals

71%

Zamora 2+ goals

36%

Zamora 3+ goals

13%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

65%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

28%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zamora (draw refunded)

57%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 68 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora attack 1.18 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Zamora defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zamora scores more

41%

level

28%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

31%

Zamora at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

A. Coscia

6'

A. Coscia

34'

A. Kawaya← Toni Abad

34'

Carlos Bravo← V. Theresin

39'

Julen Castañeda

41'

Dani Hernández GonzálezPenalty

53'

Álvaro López← Héctor Rodas

55'

Guille Perero← N. Delmonte

71'

Ángel Romero← Álex Menéndez

71'

Dani Hernández Cabeza← Rodri

79'

Carlos Bravo

82'

Álex Escardó← Héctor Hernández

87'

Luis Meseguer← Dani Hernández González

87'

M. Mapisa← A. Coscia

Zamora

Cultural

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

González

▼

Rodri

⚽2

▼

Coscia

Manager: David Movilla

55'▲Guille Perero←▼N. Delmonte

71'▲Ángel Romero←▼Álex Menéndez

71'▲Dani Hernández Cabeza←▼Rodri

87'▲Luis Meseguer←▼Dani Hernández González

87'▲M. Mapisa←▼A. Coscia

Zamora substitutes

PereroRomeroCabezaMeseguerMapisaZaim

Manager: Iñigo Idiákez

34'▲A. Kawaya←▼Toni Abad

34'▲Carlos Bravo←▼V. Theresin

53'▲Álvaro López←▼Héctor Rodas

82'▲Álex Escardó←▼Héctor Hernández

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

KawayaBravoLópezEscardóCiampichettiCarlosPipoAraújoDiarra