Cultural Leonesa 2–3 Zamora: Result & Stats

Cultural Leonesa

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Zamora

5/9/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cultural Leonesa45%

×Draw28%

Zamora27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cultural LeonesaExpected goals in this matchZamora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.98

Cultural Leonesa

1.34

Zamora

0.98

Cultural Leonesa creates 37% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 69 away

1.41

creates per match

1.04

0.91

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa

1.41

Zamora

1.04

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa

0.91

Zamora

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Zamora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw

73%

Cultural Leonesa or Zamora

72%

Draw or Zamora

55%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

21%

Zamora wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

74%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

39%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

15%

Zamora 1+ goals

62%

Zamora 2+ goals

26%

Zamora 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

62%

Zamora (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.41 + Zamora defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

Zamora attack 1.04 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more

45%

level

28%

Zamora scores more

27%

Cultural Leonesa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff