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Zamora vs Athletic Club II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Zamora
Zamora
Preview
15:00
Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
8/30/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Estadio Ruta de la Plata
Big match
44%
Zamora
model favours
44%28%28%

Both teams score in only 20% of Zamora’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Zamora44%
×Draw28%
Athletic Club II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamora
1.31
Athletic Club II
0.98

Zamora creates 34% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 56 away

creates per match

Zamora
1.18
Athletic Club II
1.02

allows per match

Zamora
0.93
Athletic Club II
1.45

finishing

Zamora+0.00on par
Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora ↓

Athletic Club II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zamora or draw
72%
Zamora or Athletic Club II
72%
Draw or Athletic Club II
56%

Winning margin

Zamora wins by 2+
20%
Athletic Club II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zamora 1+ goals
73%
Zamora 2+ goals
38%
Zamora 3+ goals
14%
Athletic Club II 1+ goals
62%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
26%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zamora (draw refunded)
61%
Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 68 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora attack 1.18 + Athletic Club II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Athletic Club II attack 1.02 + Zamora defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zamora scores more
44%
level
28%
Athletic Club II scores more
28%

Zamora at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of Zamora’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Athletic Club II raise their game against the top half — 34% wins vs the upper half, only 33% vs the lower
  • Zamora sit 3, Athletic Club II 13 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Zamora
LWWLL
II
LWLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zamora vs Athletic Club II — Match Preview

Zamora face Athletic Club II on August 30, 2026 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zamora host Athletic Club II at Estadio Ruta de la Plata.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.