Zamora 0–2 Athletic Club II: Result & Stats

Zamora

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Athletic Club II

2/1/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Estadio Ruta de la Plata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Zamora44%

×Draw28%

Athletic Club II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZamoraExpected goals in this matchAthletic Club II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.98

Zamora

1.31

Athletic Club II

0.98

Zamora creates 34% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 56 away

1.18

creates per match

1.02

0.93

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Zamora

1.18

Athletic Club II

1.02

allows per match

Zamora

0.93

Athletic Club II

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamora+0.00on par

Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora ↓

Athletic Club II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zamora or draw

72%

Zamora or Athletic Club II

72%

Draw or Athletic Club II

56%

Winning margin

Zamora wins by 2+

20%

Athletic Club II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Zamora 1+ goals

73%

Zamora 2+ goals

38%

Zamora 3+ goals

14%

Athletic Club II 1+ goals

62%

Athletic Club II 2+ goals

26%

Athletic Club II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zamora (draw refunded)

61%

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 68 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora attack 1.18 + Athletic Club II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Athletic Club II attack 1.02 + Zamora defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zamora scores more

44%

level

28%

Athletic Club II scores more

28%

Zamora at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Zamora 0–2 Athletic Club II

Athletic Club II beat Zamora 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ruta de la Plata in Zamora.

Zamora vs Athletic Club II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Zamora 0–2 Athletic Club II