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Zamora FC vs Puerto Cabello — Primera División 2018

Zamora FC
Zamora FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Puerto Cabello
Puerto Cabello
2/16/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Zamora FC45%
×Draw28%
Puerto Cabello28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamora FC
1.34
Puerto Cabello
0.99

Zamora FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 143 away

creates per match

Zamora FC
1.52
Puerto Cabello
1.02

allows per match

Zamora FC
0.96
Puerto Cabello
1.16

finishing

Zamora FC+0.00on par
Puerto Cabello+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora FC ↓

Puerto Cabello →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Zamora FC or draw
72%
Zamora FC or Puerto Cabello
72%
Draw or Puerto Cabello
55%

Winning margin

Zamora FC wins by 2+
21%
Puerto Cabello wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zamora FC 1+ goals
74%
Zamora FC 2+ goals
39%
Zamora FC 3+ goals
15%
Puerto Cabello 1+ goals
63%
Puerto Cabello 2+ goals
26%
Puerto Cabello 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zamora FC (draw refunded)
62%
Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 134 matches

Puerto Cabello away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.16 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora FC attack 1.52 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.34

Puerto Cabello attack 1.02 + Zamora FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zamora FC scores more
45%
level
28%
Puerto Cabello scores more
28%

Zamora FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zamora FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zamora FC vs Puerto Cabello

Puerto Cabello beat Zamora FC 2-0 in Primera División on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.