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Zamora FC vs Marítimo — Copa Venezuela 2024

Zamora FC
Zamora FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Marítimo
Marítimo
6/25/2025Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Round 1 - Group CEstadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zamora FC44%
×Draw22%
Marítimo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamora FC
1.88
Marítimo
1.63

Zamora FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Zamora FC
2.00
Marítimo
2.25

allows per match

Zamora FC
1.00
Marítimo
1.75

finishing

Zamora FC+0.00on par
Marítimo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora FC ↓

Marítimo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Zamora FC or draw
66%
Zamora FC or Marítimo
78%
Draw or Marítimo
56%

Winning margin

Zamora FC wins by 2+
24%
Marítimo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Zamora FC 1+ goals
85%
Zamora FC 2+ goals
56%
Zamora FC 3+ goals
29%
Marítimo 1+ goals
80%
Marítimo 2+ goals
48%
Marítimo 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Zamora FC (draw refunded)
56%
Marítimo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora FC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Marítimo away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora FC attack 2.00 + Marítimo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Marítimo attack 2.25 + Zamora FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zamora FC scores more
44%
level
22%
Marítimo scores more
34%

Zamora FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zamora FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Venezuela: Zamora FC 2–2 Marítimo

Zamora FC and Marítimo drew 2-2 in Copa Venezuela on June 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.