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Zamora FC vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Primera División 2018

Zamora FC
Zamora FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
2/3/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 1Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Zamora FC49%
×Draw26%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamora FC
1.50
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
0.97

Zamora FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 64 away

creates per match

Zamora FC
1.52
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
0.98

allows per match

Zamora FC
0.96
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.48

finishing

Zamora FC+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora FC ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zamora FC or draw
76%
Zamora FC or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
74%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
51%

Winning margin

Zamora FC wins by 2+
25%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zamora FC 1+ goals
78%
Zamora FC 2+ goals
44%
Zamora FC 3+ goals
19%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
62%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
25%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zamora FC (draw refunded)
67%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 134 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.48 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora FC attack 1.52 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.50

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 0.98 + Zamora FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zamora FC scores more
49%
level
26%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
24%

Zamora FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zamora FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Zamora FC 2–0 CD Hermanos Colmenarez

Zamora FC beat CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2-0 in Primera División on February 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.