Zamora FC 3–3 Atletico Venezuela: Result & Stats

Zamora FC

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Atletico Venezuela

3/8/2019

Primera División · Apertura - 7Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar (Barinas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Zamora FC50%

×Draw26%

Atletico Venezuela25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zamora FCExpected goals in this matchAtletico Venezuela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.99

Zamora FC

1.52

Atletico Venezuela

0.99

Zamora FC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 60 away

1.52

creates per match

1.03

0.96

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Zamora FC

1.52

Atletico Venezuela

1.03

allows per match

Zamora FC

0.96

Atletico Venezuela

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamora FC+0.00on par

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora FC ↓

Atletico Venezuela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Zamora FC or draw

75%

Zamora FC or Atletico Venezuela

74%

Draw or Atletico Venezuela

50%

Winning margin

Zamora FC wins by 2+

25%

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Zamora FC 1+ goals

78%

Zamora FC 2+ goals

45%

Zamora FC 3+ goals

20%

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals

63%

Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals

26%

Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zamora FC (draw refunded)

67%

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 134 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora FC attack 1.52 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Zamora FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zamora FC scores more

50%

level

26%

Atletico Venezuela scores more

25%

Zamora FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zamora FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff