Zamora FC B 0–0 Fundación Lara Deportiva

Zamora FC B

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fundación Lara Deportiva

4/25/2026

Segunda División · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zamora FC B45%

×Draw27%

Fundación Lara Deportiva29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zamora FC BExpected goals in this matchFundación Lara Deportiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.06

Zamora FC B

1.40

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.06

Zamora FC B creates 32% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 77 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.13

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Zamora FC B

1.50

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.00

allows per match

Zamora FC B

1.13

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamora FC B+0.00on par

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora FC B ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Zamora FC B or draw

71%

Zamora FC B or Fundación Lara Deportiva

73%

Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva

55%

Winning margin

Zamora FC B wins by 2+

21%

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Zamora FC B 1+ goals

75%

Zamora FC B 2+ goals

41%

Zamora FC B 3+ goals

17%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals

65%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals

29%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zamora FC B (draw refunded)

61%

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora FC B at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora FC B attack 1.50 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.00 + Zamora FC B defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zamora FC B scores more

45%

level

27%

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more

29%

Zamora FC B at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zamora FC B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff