Zambia W 1–1 Kenya W: Result & Stats

Zambia W

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kenya W

P. Chilufya 4'

F. Adhiambo 78'

6/6/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Zambia W52%

×Draw23%

Kenya W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zambia WExpected goals in this matchKenya W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.18

Zambia W

1.82

Kenya W

1.18

Zambia W creates 54% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.73

creates per match

1.08

1.27

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Zambia W

1.73

Kenya W

1.08

allows per match

Zambia W

1.27

Kenya W

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zambia W+0.00on par

Kenya W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zambia W ↓

Kenya W →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Zambia W or draw

75%

Zambia W or Kenya W

77%

Draw or Kenya W

48%

Winning margin

Zambia W wins by 2+

29%

Kenya W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Zambia W 1+ goals

84%

Zambia W 2+ goals

54%

Zambia W 3+ goals

27%

Kenya W 1+ goals

69%

Kenya W 2+ goals

33%

Kenya W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Zambia W (draw refunded)

68%

Kenya W (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zambia W at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Kenya W away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zambia W attack 1.73 + Kenya W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.82

Kenya W attack 1.08 + Zambia W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zambia W scores more

52%

level

23%

Kenya W scores more

25%

Zambia W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zambia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

P. Chilufya

46'

M. Chipasula← R. Chileshe

62'

O. O. Lubanji← P. Chilufya

65'

M. Serenge← L. Nyarinda

73'

S. Mwanza← G. Chanda

73'

E. Katongo← R. Nachula

78'

F. Adhiambo

83'

Zambia

Kenya

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Chilufya

Manager: Nora Hauptle

46'▲M. Chipasula←▼R. Chileshe

62'▲O. O. Lubanji←▼P. Chilufya

73'▲S. Mwanza←▼G. Chanda

73'▲E. Katongo←▼R. Nachula

Zambia W substitutes

18Mufunte1Musonda26Mutale2Nthala4Gondwe5Zulu7Mwanza9Mupopo12Katongo21Chitundu22Nanyangwe24Chipasula13Tembo15Lubanji19Mapepa

65'▲M. Serenge←▼L. Nyarinda

Kenya W substitutes

1Shiyonzo11Ann4Nthambi12Ilavonga22Shilwatso16Airo10Faith25Khaemba7Serenge5Moranga19Wanyonyi14Nambengele