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Zambia vs Guinea — Friendlies 2026

Zambia
Zambia
CANC
12:00
Guinea
Guinea
3/29/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Zambia51%
×Draw27%
Guinea22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zambia
1.44
Guinea
0.86

Zambia creates 67% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

creates per match

Zambia
1.60
Guinea
0.73

allows per match

Zambia
1.00
Guinea
1.27

finishing

Zambia+0.00on par
Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zambia ↓

Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zambia or draw
78%
Zambia or Guinea
73%
Draw or Guinea
49%

Winning margin

Zambia wins by 2+
25%
Guinea wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zambia 1+ goals
76%
Zambia 2+ goals
42%
Zambia 3+ goals
18%
Guinea 1+ goals
58%
Guinea 2+ goals
21%
Guinea 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zambia (draw refunded)
69%
Guinea (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zambia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Guinea away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zambia attack 1.60 + Guinea defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Guinea attack 0.73 + Zambia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zambia scores more
51%
level
27%
Guinea scores more
22%

Zambia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zambia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zambia vs Guinea — Match Preview

Zambia face Guinea on March 29, 2022 in this Friendlies fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zambia host Guinea at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.