Zambia 0–0 Comoros: Result & Stats

Zambia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Comoros

12/26/2025

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Stade Mohammed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zambia45%

×Draw29%

Comoros26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZambiaExpected goals in this matchComoros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.91

Zambia

1.28

Comoros

0.91

Zambia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

0.56

1.25

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Zambia

1.00

Comoros

0.56

allows per match

Zambia

1.25

Comoros

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zambia+0.00on par

Comoros+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zambia ↓

Comoros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Zambia or draw

74%

Zambia or Comoros

71%

Draw or Comoros

55%

Winning margin

Zambia wins by 2+

21%

Comoros wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Zambia 1+ goals

72%

Zambia 2+ goals

37%

Zambia 3+ goals

14%

Comoros 1+ goals

60%

Comoros 2+ goals

23%

Comoros 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Zambia (draw refunded)

63%

Comoros (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zambia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Comoros away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zambia attack 1.00 + Comoros defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Comoros attack 0.56 + Zambia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zambia scores more

45%

level

29%

Comoros scores more

26%

Zambia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zambia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Z. Youssouf

Comoros · M

7.9

Match Events

20'

Myziane MaolidaGoal cancelled

55'

Dominic Chanda

57'

W. Chisala← D. Simukonda

58'

Y. Kari← S. Bakari

58'

R. Lutin← A. Abdallah

62'

I. Mohamed← Y. Bourhane

69'

J. Sabobo← F. Sakala

70'

K. Musonda← L. Banda

77'

R. Vita← I. Boura

77'

F. Selemani← M. Maolida

89'

J. Lahne← O. Tembo

90+5'

Jack Lahne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZambiaComoros

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots10

6Corners2

15Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots10

0On Target1

7Off Target6

3Blocked3

4Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

447Total Passes526

373Accurate Passes457

83%Pass Accuracy87%

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1