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Zambia vs Cameroon — Friendlies 2026

Zambia
Zambia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cameroon
Cameroon
1/9/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Zambia41%
×Draw29%
Cameroon30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zambia
1.17
Cameroon
0.96

Zambia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Zambia
1.60
Cameroon
0.91

allows per match

Zambia
1.00
Cameroon
0.73

finishing

Zambia+0.00on par
Cameroon+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zambia ↓

Cameroon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zambia or draw
70%
Zambia or Cameroon
71%
Draw or Cameroon
59%

Winning margin

Zambia wins by 2+
17%
Cameroon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zambia 1+ goals
69%
Zambia 2+ goals
33%
Zambia 3+ goals
11%
Cameroon 1+ goals
62%
Cameroon 2+ goals
25%
Cameroon 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zambia (draw refunded)
58%
Cameroon (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zambia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Cameroon away — creates 0.91, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zambia attack 1.60 + Cameroon defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.17

Cameroon attack 0.91 + Zambia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zambia scores more
41%
level
29%
Cameroon scores more
30%

Zambia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zambia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zambia vs Cameroon

Zambia and Cameroon drew 1-1 in Friendlies on January 9, 2024.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.