Zamalek SC 0–1 Wydad AC: Result & Stats

Zamalek SC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wydad AC

Y. Jabrane 48' (pen)

3/11/2022

CAF Champions League · Group D - 4Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Zamalek SC55%

×Draw26%

Wydad AC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zamalek SCExpected goals in this matchWydad AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.79

Zamalek SC

1.54

Wydad AC

0.79

Zamalek SC creates 95% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 29 away

2.10

creates per match

0.83

0.75

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Zamalek SC

2.10

Wydad AC

0.83

allows per match

Zamalek SC

0.75

Wydad AC

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

Wydad AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw

81%

Zamalek SC or Wydad AC

74%

Draw or Wydad AC

45%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

29%

Wydad AC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

79%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

45%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

20%

Wydad AC 1+ goals

55%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

19%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

74%

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 2.10 + Wydad AC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.54

Wydad AC attack 0.83 + Zamalek SC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zamalek SC scores more

55%

level

26%

Wydad AC scores more

19%

Zamalek SC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

A. Tagnaouti

Wydad AC · G

7.9

Match Events

27'

36'

44'

45+6'

46'

M. Ounajem← Youssef Obama

48'

Y. JabranePenalty

51'

Mahmoud Alaa

56'

S. Jaziri← Omar El Said

63'

J. Tsoumou← G. Kamboleke

63'

Muaid Ellafi← Z. El-Moutaraji

72'

R. Cissé← Zizo

72'

Hazem Emam← H. Mathlouthi

84'

A. Serrhat← A. Hassouni

90+4'

Ahmed Reda Tagnaouti

90+2'

M. Rahim← J. Daoudi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZamalekWydad

Overview

63%Possession37%

15Total Shots8

8Corners1

16Fouls26

Shots

15Total Shots8

5On Target1

7Off Target6

3Blocked1

10Inside Box2

5Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

563Total Passes344

462Accurate Passes251

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls26

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides4