Zamalek SC 1–0 Pyramids FC: Result & Stats

Zamalek SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pyramids FC

Juan Alvina 84'

4/23/2026

Premier League · Championship Group - 3Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zamalek SC36%

×Draw29%

Pyramids FC36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zamalek SCExpected goals in this matchPyramids FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

Zamalek SC

1.11

Pyramids FC

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

1.22

creates per match

1.67

0.56

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Zamalek SC

1.22

Pyramids FC

1.67

allows per match

Zamalek SC

0.56

Pyramids FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Pyramids FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

Pyramids FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw

64%

Zamalek SC or Pyramids FC

71%

Draw or Pyramids FC

64%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

14%

Pyramids FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

67%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

30%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

10%

Pyramids FC 1+ goals

67%

Pyramids FC 2+ goals

30%

Pyramids FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

50%

Pyramids FC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Pyramids FC away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 1.22 + Pyramids FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Pyramids FC attack 1.67 + Zamalek SC defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Zamalek SC scores more

36%

level

29%

Pyramids FC scores more

36%

Zamalek SC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

Juan Alvina

Zamalek SC · M

8.6

Match Events

13'

M. Marei← O. Galal

26'

Ahmed Samy

45+1'

Mohamed Ismail

46'

M. El Sayed← M. Ismail

55'

Y. Obama← A. Atef

74'

Abdallah El-Said

77'

C. Banza← O. Dabbagh

77'

W. El Karti← N. Maher

77'

M. Hamdi← F. Mayele

77'

O. Al Fakhouri← M. Ziko

78'

Marwan Hamdy

84'

Juan Alvina↳ C. Banza

85'

Juan Bezerra

89'

A. Rabie← A. El Said

90+2'

Naser MansiGoal cancelled

90+4'

A. Sherif← N. Mansy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZamalekPyramids

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots10

0.71Expected Goals (xG)0.55

5Corners6

12Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots10

3On Target1

4Off Target6

2Blocked3

7Inside Box5

2Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

316Total Passes349

252Accurate Passes277

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.75Goals Prevented-0.75

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1