Zamalek SC 2–0 Pharco: Result & Stats

Zamalek SC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pharco

Abdalla El Said 51' (pen)

Mostafa Shalaby 15'

6/21/2024

Premier League · Round 12Arab Contractors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Zamalek SC54%

×Draw27%

Pharco19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zamalek SCExpected goals in this matchPharco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.71

Zamalek SC

1.43

Pharco

0.71

Zamalek SC creates 101% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 61 away

1.60

creates per match

0.66

0.76

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Zamalek SC

1.60

Pharco

0.66

allows per match

Zamalek SC

0.76

Pharco

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Pharco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

Pharco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw

81%

Zamalek SC or Pharco

73%

Draw or Pharco

46%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

27%

Pharco wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

76%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

42%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

17%

Pharco 1+ goals

51%

Pharco 2+ goals

16%

Pharco 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

75%

Pharco (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.76 · 63 matches

Pharco away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.25 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 1.60 + Pharco defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Pharco attack 0.66 + Zamalek SC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Zamalek SC scores more

54%

level

27%

Pharco scores more

19%

Zamalek SC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Mostafa Shalaby

Zamalek SC · M

8.0

Match Events

15'

Mostafa Shalaby↳ H. Mathlouthi

46'

Ammar Mansour← Nasser Maher

46'

T. Mutyaba← Sayed Abdallah Sika

49'

Mohamed Saeed Shika

50'

Youssef ObamaPenalty confirmed

51'

Abdalla El SaidPenalty

60'

Mahmoud Emad← K. Sokari

60'

Mohamed Fakhry← Ahmed Fouad

68'

Mohamed Ashraf Roqa← Abdalla El Said

77'

Amr Gamal← Shokry Naguib

77'

Walid Farag← A. Ghouma

77'

Amr Nasser← Mahmoud El Badry

80'

Mohamed Shehata

86'

Mohamed El Sayed← Mostafa Shalaby

90+2'

Naser Mansy← Ziad Kamal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZamalekPharco

Overview

65%Possession35%

13Total Shots8

9Corners4

10Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots8

7On Target0

5Off Target7

1Blocked1

8Inside Box4

5Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

543Total Passes279

458Accurate Passes194

84%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2