Zamalek SC 0–1 Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

Zamalek SC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

8/27/2018

Premier League · Round 4Petrosport Stadium (al-Qāhirah (Cairo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zamalek SC55%

×Draw24%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zamalek SCExpected goals in this matchNogoom El Mostakbal FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.95

Zamalek SC

1.72

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

0.95

Zamalek SC creates 81% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 17 away

1.84

creates per match

1.12

0.78

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Zamalek SC

1.84

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

1.12

allows per match

Zamalek SC

0.78

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw

79%

Zamalek SC or Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

76%

Draw or Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

45%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

31%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

82%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

51%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

25%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 1+ goals

61%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 2+ goals

25%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

73%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.78 · 129 matches

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 1.84 + Nogoom El Mostakbal FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.72

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC attack 1.12 + Zamalek SC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zamalek SC scores more

55%

level

24%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC scores more

21%

Zamalek SC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff