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Zamalek SC vs National Bank of Egypt — Premier League 2025

Zamalek SC
Zamalek SC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
National Bank of Egypt
National Bank of Egypt
Abdalla El Said 90+8' (pen)
Naser Mansy 53'
Nasser Maher 38'
Mohamed Helal 76' (pen), 50' (pen)
11/1/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1WE Al-Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zamalek SC43%
×Draw30%
National Bank of Egypt27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamalek SC
1.19
National Bank of Egypt
0.88

Zamalek SC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 19 away

creates per match

Zamalek SC
1.54
National Bank of Egypt
1.05

allows per match

Zamalek SC
0.71
National Bank of Egypt
0.84

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par
National Bank of Egypt+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

National Bank of Egypt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw
73%
Zamalek SC or National Bank of Egypt
70%
Draw or National Bank of Egypt
57%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+
19%
National Bank of Egypt wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals
70%
Zamalek SC 2+ goals
33%
Zamalek SC 3+ goals
12%
National Bank of Egypt 1+ goals
59%
National Bank of Egypt 2+ goals
22%
National Bank of Egypt 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)
61%
National Bank of Egypt (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.71 · 35 matches

National Bank of Egypt away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 1.54 + National Bank of Egypt defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.19

National Bank of Egypt attack 1.05 + Zamalek SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zamalek SC scores more
43%
level
30%
National Bank of Egypt scores more
27%

Zamalek SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
Mohamed HelalNational Bank of EgyptNational Bank of Egypt · M
8.3

Match Events

30'
Mohamed Ibrahim
32'
Mohamed Abdelghani
38'
Nasser Maher↳ Abdalla El Said
46'
Naser Mansy← Omar Faraj
46'
K. Michalak← Mohamed Hamdy
50'
Mohamed HelalPenalty
53'
Naser Mansy↳ Nasser Maher
56'
Ahmed Yasser Rayan← Mohamed Fathi
56'
Ahmed Rabie← Mohamed Ibrahim
63'
Hamza Mathlouthi
64'
Mohamed Shehata
69'
Ziad Kamal← Nasser Maher
74'
Mohamed Awad
74'
Ahmed Abou El Fotouh← Zizo
76'
Mohamed HelalPenalty
78'
Ahmed El Nadry← Y. Annor
79'
Sayed Abdallah Sika← Mohamed Bassiouny
81'
S. Jaziri← Mohamed Shehata
86'
Ahmed Madbouly← Mohamed Helal
90+7'
Naser MansiPenalty confirmed
90+3'
Sayed Abdallah
90+8'
Abdalla El SaidPenalty

Possession

58%Zamalek

Shots

9Zamalek

Pass accuracy

51%Zamalek

Statistics

ZamalekNational
Overview
58%Possession42%
9Total Shots12
3Corners5
12Fouls19
Shots
9Total Shots12
4On Target2
5Off Target8
0Blocked2
7Inside Box6
2Outside Box6
Passing
58%Possession42%
520Total Passes368
436Accurate Passes295
84%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls19
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Premier League: Zamalek SC 3–2 National Bank of Egypt

Zamalek SC beat National Bank of Egypt 3-2 in Premier League on November 1, 2024.

Goals: Nasser Maher (38'), Mohamed Helal (50' pen, 76' pen), Naser Mansy (53'), Abdalla El Said (90+8' pen).

Zamalek SC controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at WE Al-Ahly Stadium in Cairo.