Zamalek SC 1–1 Future FC: Result & Stats

Zamalek SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Future FC

S. Jaziri 34'

Mohamed Sadek 40'

5/23/2024

Premier League · Round 24Arab Contractors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Zamalek SC49%

×Draw29%

Future FC22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zamalek SCExpected goals in this matchFuture FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.78

Zamalek SC

1.31

Future FC

0.78

Zamalek SC creates 68% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 22 away

1.54

creates per match

0.86

0.71

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Zamalek SC

1.54

Future FC

0.86

allows per match

Zamalek SC

0.71

Future FC

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Future FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

Future FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw

78%

Zamalek SC or Future FC

71%

Draw or Future FC

51%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

23%

Future FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

73%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

38%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

14%

Future FC 1+ goals

54%

Future FC 2+ goals

18%

Future FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

69%

Future FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.71 · 35 matches

Future FC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 1.54 + Future FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Future FC attack 0.86 + Zamalek SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zamalek SC scores more

49%

level

29%

Future FC scores more

22%

Zamalek SC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

S. Jaziri

Zamalek SC · F

8.2

Match Events

34'

S. Jaziri↳ Omar Gaber

40'

Mohamed Sadek

45+3'

Ibrahima Ndiaye

46'

Mostafa Shalaby← I. Ndiaye

54'

Joseph Jonathan Ngwem

60'

Ghanam Mohamed← Ali Zaazaa

71'

Hassane Imourane

71'

Youssef Obama← Nasser Maher

79'

Bassem Ali← Mohamed Sadek

79'

A. Eba← Ahmed Atef

86'

S. Akinyoola← Abdalla El Said

86'

Naser Mansy← S. Jaziri

89'

Mohamed Rabia← Mohamed Farouk

90'

Omar Gaber

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZamalekFuture

Overview

64%Possession36%

15Total Shots9

9Corners1

13Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots9

6On Target2

7Off Target6

2Blocked1

11Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

532Total Passes301

436Accurate Passes209

82%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1