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Zamalek SC vs Elect-Sport — CAF Champions League 2019

Zamalek SC
Zamalek SC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Elect-Sport
Elect-Sport
9/25/2022CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundCairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zamalek SC66%
×Draw23%
Elect-Sport11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamalek SC
1.72
Elect-Sport
0.54

Zamalek SC creates 219% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 3 away

creates per match

Zamalek SC
2.10
Elect-Sport
0.33

allows per match

Zamalek SC
0.75
Elect-Sport
1.33

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par
Elect-Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

Elect-Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw
89%
Zamalek SC or Elect-Sport
77%
Draw or Elect-Sport
34%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+
38%
Elect-Sport wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals
82%
Zamalek SC 2+ goals
51%
Zamalek SC 3+ goals
25%
Elect-Sport 1+ goals
42%
Elect-Sport 2+ goals
10%
Elect-Sport 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)
86%
Elect-Sport (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Elect-Sport away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 2.10 + Elect-Sport defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Elect-Sport attack 0.33 + Zamalek SC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Zamalek SC scores more
66%
level
23%
Elect-Sport scores more
11%

Zamalek SC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zamalek SC vs Elect-Sport

Zamalek SC beat Elect-Sport 2-0 in CAF Champions League on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.