Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zamalek SC vs El Mokawloon — Premier League 2025

Zamalek SC
Zamalek SC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
El Mokawloon
El Mokawloon
Mostafa Shalaby 58' (pen)
Zizo 34'
Fady Farid 90+2'
J. Okoli 25'
4/17/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zamalek SC48%
×Draw29%
El Mokawloon24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamalek SC
1.30
El Mokawloon
0.82

Zamalek SC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 18 away

creates per match

Zamalek SC
1.54
El Mokawloon
0.94

allows per match

Zamalek SC
0.71
El Mokawloon
1.06

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par
El Mokawloon+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

El Mokawloon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw
76%
Zamalek SC or El Mokawloon
71%
Draw or El Mokawloon
52%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+
22%
El Mokawloon wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals
73%
Zamalek SC 2+ goals
37%
Zamalek SC 3+ goals
14%
El Mokawloon 1+ goals
56%
El Mokawloon 2+ goals
20%
El Mokawloon 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)
67%
El Mokawloon (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.71 · 35 matches

El Mokawloon away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 1.54 + El Mokawloon defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.30

El Mokawloon attack 0.94 + Zamalek SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zamalek SC scores more
48%
level
29%
El Mokawloon scores more
24%

Zamalek SC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
Hatem Mohamed
25'
J. Okoli
34'
Zizo
52'
Seif Gaafar← Zizo
58'
Mostafa ShalabyPenalty
64'
Mostafa Shalaby
64'
Youssef Nabih← Mostafa Shalaby
72'
Abdelrahman Khaled← M. Niass
73'
Omar Fathi Saviola← L. Hinestroza
73'
Mohamed Shawky Gharib← Ahmed Atef Otta
78'
Mohamed Ashraf Roqa← Nabil Emad Dunga
78'
Shikabala← Naser Mansy
84'
Omar Fathi
85'
Joseph Ochaya
90+1'
Fady Farid
90'
Fady Farid← Mohamed Magli
90+5'
Louay Wael← J. Okoli
90+2'
Fady Farid

Statistics

ZamalekEl
Overview
6Corners3
Discipline
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Premier League: Zamalek SC 2–2 El Mokawloon

Zamalek SC and El Mokawloon drew 2-2 in Premier League on April 17, 2023.

Goals: J. Okoli (25'), Zizo (34'), Mostafa Shalaby (58' pen), Fady Farid (90+2').

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.